Bird Populations Are in Decline — What Does This Mean for Whatcom County?

by Ella Gage

Birds are an indicator species. Their population health is denotative of the health and trajectory of our ecosystem as a whole. The ground-breaking 2019 Science magazine report “Decline of the North American Avifauna” was derived from half a century of census monitoring. It yielded an eye opening statistic: North America has nearly three billion fewer birds than it did in the 1970s, and 303 of the 529 monitored species are declining — a trend that has continued into 2024 (1). 

Birds are highly sensitive to changes in habitat, pollution, and the warming global temperature. Their staggering decline of nearly one-third of their population since 1970 speaks directly to the instability of ecological health — a global threat from which even our local climate haven is not free.. Nearly every bird species in Washington state is in decline. Not just the endangered species, but the common ones as well. Whatcom County has a dazzling diversity of avian species — robins, herons, bald eagles, harlequin ducks, murrelets — which we regard as beautiful fixtures of our natural landscapes. Their presence is not guaranteed against impending threats of habitat loss and climate change. The sprawling Puget Sound shoreline and coniferous forests that define our region are home to some of the most fragile forest and coastal-dwelling avian species (2). 

Population Volatility

Cornell Lab of Ornithology periodically publishes a “State of the Birds” report that identifies subsets of “tipping point species” that are at risk of losing half of their populations (or more) over the next 50 years without conservationist intervention (3). This specifically implicates seabirds — namely murrelets, albatrosses, petrels, and shearwaters — which reside in local coastal and pelagic habitats. 

Forest birds such as the northern spotted owl, western tanager, and mountain chickadee are threatened by climate change-induced ecological changes, including increased competition, food availability, migratory patterns, and forest health. According to the 2022 “State of the Birds” report, Western forest birds have declined by nearly 20 percent since the 1990s (3). This is largely a result of historical disturbance patterns — specifically the disruption of successional stages in coniferous forests. Though there are patches of North Cascades National Park and Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest with protected old-growth forests that have remained largely undisturbed, much of Whatcom County’s forests have been logged extensively through the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Second-growth forests lack the richness of biodiversity and ecosystem complexity of pristine old-growth forests. 

Bird populations are disproportionally affected by climate-related threats affecting Whatcom County and Washington state’s alpine forests and coastal ecosystems (4). These are the very ecosystems that define our regional landscape, making it the natural paradise it is. 

Value of Our Ecoregion

Bellingham and Whatcom County are part of the Puget Trough ecoregion — a mecca of biodiversity spanning from the Cascade foothills to the Pacific. The value of our region in terms of habitat and ecology cannot be emphasized enough. Our rich landscape (north to south from British Columbia’s Georgia Basin to Oregon’s Willamette Valley, east to west from the Cascade Range to the San Juans) offers an uniquely rich assortment of natural habitats (5). From alpine forests and river valleys to the coastal expanse, the estuaries that fuse the three are some of the most biologically valuable ecosystems in Washington state. Many migratory birds depend on estuaries as resting and feeding grounds during their long journeys, and countless native birds rely on the health and prosperity of estuaries as their year-round home (5). 

The shallow intertidal region of the Puget Sound is essential to the prospering of bird species, specifically waterfowl and birds of prey — specifically, “loons, brant, dunlin, great blue herons, red-breasted mergansers, buffleheads, mallards, ducks, grebes and many other migrating aquatic birds” which are common in huge numbers (6). Bald eagles, osprey, peregrine falcons, and hawks nest above in the tall trees and cliffsides overlooking the water. It’s vital these estuaries stay teeming with life — and not pollutants — to support crucial nesting, feeding, and resting spots for birds. 

Whatcom County is the northernmost Important Bird Area of the state, with official recognition from Audubon Washington (7). It’s home to six key locations along the Cascade Loop of the Audubon Society’s Great Washington State Birding Trail: Whatcom Falls Park, Ferndale’s Tennant Lake, Deming Homestead Eagle Park, Semiahmoo Bay, Birch Bay State Park, and Larrabee State Park, marriages of outdoor recreation and bountiful natural habitat (6).

This mixture of shoreline, wetlands, and forests fosters an abundance of avian habitat. The shorelines provide resting grounds for thousands of dunlin, migratory brant, and native black-bellied plovers. Semiahmoo Bay is acclaimed for supporting huge flocks of ducks and grebes (some of the highest recorded counts of red-necked grebes and horned grebes on the Washington coast), as well as a record-breaking survey count of over 15,000 loons one winter (6). 

Watchlist Species

Despite the optics of thriving local habitats, many of the very species Whatcom County is known for supporting huge numbers of are nonetheless showing warning signs — or drastic population declines. Birds Connect Seattle (previously Seattle Audubon) compiled a watchlist from the four most important lists of aviary population monitoring: the federal List of Threatened and Endangered Species (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), the Audubon/American Bird Conservancy Watch List, the state Species of Concern list (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife), and the Audubon Washington Vulnerable Birds list, which lend insight into how some of our seemingly most prosperous species are actually doing (2).

The National Audubon’s Species on the Brink list includes Canada goose-like brant, supposedly common harlequin ducks, and culturally iconic bald eagles (4). The American Bird Conservancy has yellow-listed yellow-billed loons, black oystercatchers, surfbirds, and western sandpipers. Additionally, trumpeter swans, common to Whatcom and Skagit County’s fields and estuaries, have been listed as “high concern” — so have western grebes (4). In a recent March 2024 endangered listing, the Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission has included longstanding listings of the marbled murrelet and northern spotted owl as threatened; northern goshawks, golden eagles, and Cassin’s auklet were listed as candidates (8). 

These unprecedented declines are the result of multiple factors working in tandem. Logging and urban development account for habitat reduction. Pollutants in coastal waters — specifically in long-contaminated Bellingham Bay — impact the health and prey availability of coastal and aquatic birds. Human disturbance and climate change continue to undercut the lifestyles, breeding grounds, nesting, and overall habitat availability for birds. Without steady populations of coastal and forest birds, the local ecosystems (and environment) that our region is nationally renowned for will rapidly destabilize. 

Survival Factors

Maintaining the integrity of the coastline, offshore habitats and coniferous forests is critical. According to Cornell’s 2022 Tipping Point report, over 70 species of birds are highly or completely dependent upon the Salish Sea’s marine environment for survival (3). Species such as the marbled murrelet, pigeon guillemot, and harlequin duck rely on Washington’s coast for sustenance, feeding on fish and marine invertebrates, and they use the region for nesting (9). 

Immediate conservation measures are needed to turn around the declines of these Tipping Point species, or they could lose another half or more of their populations in the next 50 years, based on recent trajectories and assessments from scientists (3). Their survival hinges on the health of Washington’s intertidal, estuarine, and pelagic environments of the Puget Sound, San Juan Archipelago, and the greater Washington coast. 

Local declines in bird populations are part of the larger trend of environmental degradation and global warming threatening the fragility of ecosystems across North America. For Washington state, this means that “… More than half of 296 Washington bird species face trouble as forests shrink, sea levels rise and the seasons warm.” (1) The clock is ticking and the jury is out as to whether or not birds, both locally and nationally, will adapt to the implications of ever-increasing global warming in time. 

The forecast for the century’s end? Scientists predict global temperatures will climb by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, or three degrees Celsius unless there are massive reductions in fossil fuel emissions, the driving force behind climate change (1). Climate vulnerability projections are now integrated into the National Audubon Society’s species-by-species threat analysis for each year — and for good reason. 

“Some of the birds most at risk for that three-degree warming include the rufous hummingbird, the white-crowned sparrow, and the Swainson’s thrush. All could lose more than 90 percent of the summer breeding ranges they now use in the state,” said Audubon Washington’s director of bird conservation Trina Bayard in a Seattle Times interview (10). She mentioned shifts in the timing of plant blooms and insect hatches would be detrimental. That interview occurred on the heels of the weighty 2019 National Audubon report that shed light on mass population declines (1). Since 2019, the global average surface temperature has crept up from 0.98 degrees Celsius above the average for the 20th century to 1.18 degrees above average in 2023 (11). 

Drawing from 140 million observations from birders and multidisciplinary scientists from the National Audubon, a hefty conclusion was drawn: “By stabilizing carbon emissions and holding warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels throughout this century, 76 percent of vulnerable species will be better off, and nearly 150 species would no longer be vulnerable to extinction from climate change (4). Reaching this goal would be impossible unless the projected rate of global warming (three degrees Celsius) is halved. 

Temperature is not the only factor in this equation —deforestation rates will be additionally consequential. Deforestation trajectories are looking grim for the state; according to the Audubon Washington, if the three-degree projection is accurate, the coniferous forests covering 59 percent of the state are expected to fall to 46 percent by 2100 (2). A decrease in forest habitat in our already fragmented and deforested Puget Trough ecoregion would be devastating to bird populations. Among the myriad of consequences, this would result in the acceleration of habitat loss for valuable breeding and nesting grounds, upticks in competition between species, and food scarcity.

Our collective actions right now — spanning from local Whatcom County initiatives to the environmental action plans of the larger global community — will be consequential in determining the fate of birds, and, beyond that, the balance of the ecosystem that comprises the health and livability of our planet. A mere 76 years until the end of the century doesn’t give birds enough time to adapt to a warming climate, acidifying ocean, or shrinking forests. Evolution takes hundreds of thousands of years. Humans can create temporary technological fixes, but the natural world — and the species keystone to balancing it — cannot. 

Hope Through Change

That’s not to say there isn’t hope. It’s easy to feel powerless in the face of these sorts of doomsday-esque environmental trajectories, and understandably so. The race against the clock of scientific projections requiring immediate action is palpable, legitimate, and undeniable. The impacts of climate change and environmental degradation loom over us, and it’s alarming to acknowledge we are not protected — not even in our northernmost corner of the rain-soaked, lush Pacific Northwest. Even the species that seem prosperous are at immediate risk.

But change starts at the grassroots of our community; in our local policies, efforts, and collective action. Hope starts there, too. Despite the daunting globalization, reach, and countless implications of climate change, Whatcom County is a leader of sustainability initiatives within Washington state, which has passed some of the most aggressive environmental stewardship and sustainability practices in the country. These include the Clean Energy Transformation Act of 2019, the Climate Commitment Act of 2021, the Puget Sound Initiative to protect and restore our coastal environments, a multitude of local Zero Waste Initiatives, and more (12). 

There’s an impressive array of ongoing preservation and conservation efforts from an amalgamation of government agencies and organizations to protect our local biomes and species. Audubon Washington continues to push for investments and policies supporting Puget Sound restoration and habitat protection. In 2023, they established the Salish Sea Estuaries Avian Monitoring Framework which establishes a cohesive method for population monitoring, habitat management, and the restoration of estuaries (13). The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife takes part in a nationwide effort in which all 50 states produce comprehensive Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years to determine state actions to benefit wildlife, habitats, and identify the species with greatest volatility (14). Their updated plan will come out in 2025, and it will likely be a complete revision of their 2015 plan. 

On a local level, Whatcom County has recently established a Forest Resilience Plan and task force that will work closely with “… Local, state, federal, and tribal governments and relevant stakeholders on issues relating to forest management and resilience …” (15). Its permanent members include leaders from the Lummi Nation, the Nooksack Indian Tribe, and representatives from multiple environmental protection programs and agencies including the Washington Department of Natural Resources, the Forest Advisory Committee, the Climate Impact Advisory Committee, and the Parks and Recreation Commission. Restoring healthy forest ecosystems for fish and wildlife is one of their overarching goals. 

The City of Bellingham and Washington Conservation Corps continue to build their list of historically successful projects to mitigate climate impact and restore water quality and habitat, such as their most recent Little Squalicum Estuary project. North Cascades Audubon has a collection of ongoing projects aiming to bolster the ecological health and bird habitat in Scudder Pond, at Cherry Point, and the Harrison Reserve (13). Among others, these efforts against local extinctions are driving forces in preserving avian biodiversity through the coniferous forests and aquatic biomes of our region. 

Against a complex and ever-shifting global political stage, community-driven initiatives will always be our first line of defense against impending climate change and habitat loss. It’s vital to situate the unique environmental value of our region within the natural habitat it provides. Amidst its sprawling natural landscapes from the Cascades to the Pacific, our region would not retain its sanctuary-esque appeal without thriving biodiversity. 

One would not want to imagine Semiahmoo Bay without majestic great blue herons set against the backdrop of the Puget Sound, or Birch Bay without the airborne acrobatics of dunlin flocks. The freshwater wetlands of Tenant Lake and Whatcom Falls provide sheltered habitats for wood ducks and hooded mergansers, trailed by lines of ducklings during the spring. Pileated woodpeckers nest in the coniferous trees of Larrabee State Park, and pelagic cormorants perch along the rock-studded shoreline. Wintering bald eagles soar above the Nooksack River; trumpeter swans dot the landscape of open fields as they rest en masse from their thousand-mile journeys. Whatcom County would not be the same without the presence of these species. 

The integrity of the diverse natural landscape of the northernmost region of Washington rests on our ability to protect the species that inhabit it. Conservation efforts are not in vain, and ongoing research is a necessity. We cannot afford to brush the implications of this issue beneath the carpet of our public consciousness — time is running out. The future of birds is fragile and uncertain, and their fate over the next century is inextricably linked to our own.  

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Ella Gage is a journalism-public relations student at Western Washington University with a longstanding interest in environmental conservation, social issues, and the ways in which they intersect.

Endnotes:

1.  Rosenberg, K. V. et al. (2019). “Decline of the North American avifauna.” Science, 366(6461), 120–124. 
2.  https://birdweb.org/birdweb/specialconcern 
3.  Cornell Lab of Ornithology. (2022). “Bird declines are reaching a tipping point.” State of the Birds 2022. https://www.stateofthebirds.org/2022/tipping-point-species/ 
4.  https://www.audubon.org/climate/survivalbydegrees 
5.  https://www.birdweb.org/birdweb/ecoregion/puget_trough 
6.  https://www.cascadeloop.com/6-birding-hot-spots-in-whatcom-county#:~:text=Loons%2C%20Brant%2C%20Dunlin%2C%20Great,high%20in%20the%20surrounding%20evergreens. 
7.  https://wa.audubon.org/conservation/important-bird-areas-washington 
8.  https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/wa-state-listed-and-candidate-species-list.pdf 
9.  https://wdfw.wa.gov/species-habitats/at-risk/species-recovery/seabirds 
10.  Bernton, H. (2019, October 12). “Washington bird species could face population declines, sharp reductions in range if climate change trajectory continues, study finds.” The Seattle Times. 
11.  Dahlman, R. L. (2024, January 18). “Climate change: Global temperature.” NOAA Climate. 
12.  https://ecology.wa.gov/about-us/who-we-are/our-programs 
13.  Bayard, T. (2023, August 25). “A Regional Framework for Monitoring Birds for Conservation.” Audubon Washington. 
14.  https://wdfw.wa.gov/species-habitats/at-risk/swap 
15.  https://www.whatcomcounty.us/4270/Forest-Resilience-Task-Force