Shrinking Your Carbon Footprint Cost-Effectively

Whatcom Watch

by Ray Kamada

This article tries to address the question: what is the most cost effective action that Whatcom County (WC) residents can take to lower their own carbon footprint? Thus, the table below estimates, for an average local household, the current, tax-subsidized personal cost and social value of avoiding CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent emissions), rendered in descending order, from personally least to most costly outlay, along with their social benefit. Details follow and they do matter, especially the timing.

1a) Basic Stats:

A 2013 U Berkeley report and the 2021 WC Climate Action Plan show that most of WC is well above Statista’s 2022 U.S. average per household of ~36 tons per year. However, due to an ongoing emissions decline via nascent EV, heat pump, and solar panel purchases, atop a longer term decline in beef consumption, we estimate the local annual household CO2e at ~36.9 tons. (1-4) In 2022, the mean size of a WC household was 2.43, slightly less than the U.S. average of 2.51. (5-7) 

As of 2022, the EPA estimated the social cost of damage from CO2e at $190 per tonne. (8) Other estimates range from $118 to $280/tonne, with a recent outlier at $1,056/tonne. So, with inflation we assume $200/tonne, i.e., $180/ton as our working value. (9-13)

1b) Electricity: 

With 57 percent of its electricity derived from fossil fuels, Puget Sound Energy (PSE) reports for 2022 an emissions intensity of 0.454 tons of CO2e per mWh (megawatt hours). (14) So, an average 12.5 mWh per year per local household yields ~5.7 tons of CO2e. This includes the roughly one-third of WC households (mostly apartment dwellers) relying on electrical heat. (15)

1c) Cars:

Approximately 5 percent of Washington state cars are now full EVs. Washington state households average ~21.9k miles with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) averaging ~26.5 mpg. This yields 826 gallons x 0.0098 tons of CO2e/gallon = ~8.1 tons of CO2e, annually. (16-18)

1d) Flying:

We assume the U.S. average emissions from flying of ~1.6 tons per household. Note that long distance flights emit less CO2e per mile. (19-23)

1e) Miscellany

A therm of gas is equivalent in energy to 0.0293 mWh. Gas furnaces average ~90 percent energy efficiency, while gas hot water heaters are typically ~60 percent efficient, due to necessary venting. (24, 25) We also assume an average ~3.0 tons of CO2e for other personal goods and services. (26)

Carbon Footprint reduction costs

*Only the EV option was used in the totals, not both the EV and e-scooter options.

2) Emissions and Cost Estimates For

2a) Food:

Like the United States as a whole, ~24 percent of Seattle’s total personal carbon emissions comes from food production and consumption. Thus, we also assume a local 24 percent or yearly 8.9 tons for food-related emissions. (27, 28) Livestock has 3 to 10x the carbon footprint of other significant protein sources, and accounts for an annual 4.0 to 4.3 tons of CO2e per average U.S. household. (29) Thus, one study suggests that food-related CO2e emissions could still be lowered by ~59 percent with a fish-based diet and ~73 percent by a vegan one. 

Others suggest that a plant-dominant (flexitarian) diet can provide much of the emissions savings of a fully vegetarian one. (30-33) Food waste might also be reduced by ~0.8 tons. (34) Thus, if the above food-related sectors were cut by 60 percent via a greener diet, less food waste and less packaging (via multiple use bags), it may lower local, annual, household carbon footprints by as much as 5.3 tons.

In terms of cost, the average WC household might spend ~$9,050 annually on food. (35, 36) Fish-based diets that include eggs and dairy may cost ~2 percent more than livestock-based ones. However, flexitarian diets may be ~14 percent less expensive, while a vegan diet may run 16 to 34 percent less. (37-39)

This suggests a non-tax subsidized, annual personal cost savings from near-zero to $580/ton per household, along with a potential social value of ~$948. 

Thus, many of us can shrink our carbon footprints most cheaply by eating lower on the food chain.

2b) Home Heating/Hot Water

A direct value for WC from Cascade Natural Gas (CNG) was not accessible. However, interpolation from their other data suggests a figure similar to PSE’s, showing that their households consume an annual average of 880 therms of natural gas. (40,41) CNG does report that 61 percent of their gas is used for space heating, 32 percent for hot water, 3 percent for cooking, and 4 percent for clothes drying. Once we note that almost 40 percent of local households use electricity or propane for space heating, the above figures fall to 19 percent for hot water, 2 percent for cooking, and 3 percent for clothes drying (all near U.S. averages). (42-44)

Two recent estimates of global leakage rates for natural gas are 2.3 and 2.95 percent, while site flaring would raise that to 6.6 percent. (45-46) The International Energy Agency suggests a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) for methane of ~32x that of CO2. (47) Sans leakage, burning methane completely yields 11.7 lbs. of CO2e emissions per therm. (48) But a mid-value 2.95 percent leakage rate would add another 10.7 lbs., i.e., 0.9705 x 11.7 + 0.0295 x 32 x 11.7 = 22.4 lbs. or 0.011 tons of total CO2e per therm. Thus, we estimate that 880 therms yields an annual 9.9 tons of CO2e per WC household.

Propane has ~96 percent of the heating value of natural gas by weight and via the same extraction process, propane production also elicits methane leakage. So, here we treat their carbon footprints as identical. (49,50)

Heat Pumps

Heat pumps with local heating seasonal performance factors (HSPF) of ~10.0 have a coefficient of performance (COP) of ~2.9. So, with slight adjustments for cooking and clothes drying, this should require (0.95 x 880) therms x .0293 mWh/therm x (0.90/2.9) x (0.81 and 0.19) = ~6.2 and 1.4 mWh annually for space heating and hot water. (51) Thus, switching to heat pumps for space heating and hot water may avoid ~7.6 tons and 2.3 tons of CO2e from natural gas, respectively, while adding 2.8 and 1.0 tons from electricity, for a net annual 4.8 and 1.3 tons of CO2e avoided. These figures should rise slowly as PSE divests from coal and natural gas.

A 5-ton, 95 percent efficient, variable speed, gas furnace may run ~$9k. As old furnaces are typically not variable speed, they are often over-sized. By comparison, we assume that a ducted, 5-ton, high efficiency heat pump will run ~$17k for parts and labor, while a typical hot water heat pump installation may run ~$4k or perhaps ~$2k more than simply replacing an old gas, hot water heater with a new one. (52,53)

For most people, the Federal Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides a $4k to $8k heat pump rebate for space heating and a 30 percent tax credit up to $2,000 per year for hot water heat pumps. Direct IRA rebates up to $1,750 are also due to start late this year and PSE provides at least a $500 rebate for hot water heat pumps. So, the additional, personal, upfront cost to switch to a heat pump space heater may be ~$0 to $8k, while switching to a hot water heat pump may range from ~ -$250 to $3.5k.

Regional heating costs via electricity are ~3x higher than the $1.25/therm cost of natural gas, yet a heat pump with COP of ~2.9 should nearly offset the higher cost of electricity. The average residential retail cost of electricity in Whatcom County is now ~$133/mWh. (54) So, the annual utility cost for heat pump space and hot water heating should be ~6.2 mWh x $133/mWh = ~$825, and 1.4mWh x $133/mWh = $186, or $1,011 in total, whereas the current annual average heating and hot water bill is 0.95 x 880 therms x $1.25/therm = ~$1,045. But don’t forget the added benefit of whole-house air conditioning during increasingly frequent heat waves, plus improved interior air quality during longer fire seasons.

There’s also maintenance, which may be slightly higher for gas furnaces because HVAC servicing runs ~$150 – $200/year, whereas a heat pump only needs monthly to quarterly DIY inspection and vacuuming, plus one or two filter replacements per year at ~$50 apiece. So, for routine maintenance, a gas furnace may run ~$50 to $150/yr more than a heat pump. Maintenance for gas vs. heat pump water heaters is roughly similar, the main caveat being an annual tank flushing to minimize calcium deposits. 

So, for space heating, with an $8k rebate, the annual cost per avoided ton of CO2e for furnaces may be – $200/4.8tons ~ -$42/ton. With a $4k rebate, the cost per avoided ton of CO2e may be ($4k/15 yrs.) – $200)/4.8tons ~ -$14/ton. But with no rebate and 15-year life cycle, it may be more like (($8k/15 yrs.) – $200)/4.8tons =~$69/ton. For hot water heat pumps, assuming a typical 13-year life span, the corresponding figures may run from ~ -$14 to $207 per avoided ton.

To estimate net social value, one must ignore all tax credits and rebates, as they entail a transfer from the commons. If so, 4.8 tons at $180/ton is ~$864/year or $13k over the expected 15-year lifespan. So, the social value of an installed heat pump is roughly 1.6x the extra cost of a new heat pump over a new gas furnace. This suggests that the IRA is a social benefits multiplier (as intended). The corresponding estimate for the social value of a hot water heat pump is ~$234/year, over a 13-year life span = ~$3k, or about 1.5x the added cost to switch.

2c) E-Scooters

We occupy the very bottom rung of the global ladder in terms of x/e, the exergy/energy ratio, i.e., the work done per energy consumed. Indeed, a 4,000-pound vehicle carrying a 200-pound person with 20 pounds of groceries from point A to point B, yields an x/e well below 0.1, even before we add the energy expended in manufacturing and maintaining the vehicle or the roadway it rides on. So, Americans may view them for now as toys, but the x/e for foldable, ultra-light, e-scooters approaches unity. Moreover, they can shave commuter “walk time” by ~75 percent, yet be carried easily onto a bus, train, or light rail.

So, let’s consider a 26-pound, Niu Kqi3 Air, carbon-fiber, e-scooter for commuters. Top speed is ~20 mph, with a real-world 20-plus miles of range on a 0.45 kWh battery, rechargeable within 5 hours. E.g., a 10-mile car commute from Sudden Valley to downtown Bellingham might take ~30 minutes, or, depending on traffic and parking time, perhaps 15 minutes more by bus plus 1.5 miles of e-scooting. If so, in place of 5k miles and ~1.85 tons of auto emissions, one might pay a tiny $3 a year in annual electricity for an e-scooter that emits ~0.03 tons of CO2e. Students ride free, but a WTA bus pass for non-students, 18 to 65, costs a dollar a day. If electric, a bus may emit ~0.3 tons of CO2e per year over an 8.5-mile route, which would avoid a net ~1.5 tons of CO2e per year. And, if you miss the bus, you can still scoot. (55)

The downsides are higher risk of bodily injury and accidents, for which one may need extra insurance. Then again, by avoiding say 250 days of car commuting at an average 26.5 mpg, one might save ~188 gallons of gas at ~$4.40/gl or ~$830, not to mention that one may no longer need a $50/month gym fee, or a treadmill to stave off weight gain and delay for decades that hospital bill for a triple bypass.

So, if a $1,064 e-scooter suitable for regular commuting lasts 800 bi-weekly, 50 percent recharges or ~eight years, along with an annual $360 in bus fares, $200 in insurance, and $100 in maintenance, including yearly tire changes, the above fuel savings would totally offset e-scooter expenses, such that avoiding an annual ~3.0 tons of CO2e emissions per couple may cost you nothing at all, even sans subsidies. So, with any future tax break or significant drop in retail price via economy of scale, the net life cycle cost would surely turn negative. Meanwhile, the social benefit may be worth ~$540 per couple per year.

As batteries get lighter and prices drop, Europe and other nations show hints of a synergy with mass transit, suggesting that ultra-light e-scooters might mitigate the “first/last mile” issue that’s kept U.S. mass transit from reaching its potential. (56-60)

2d) Residential Roof-Top Solar 

At a typical ~$26k for an average 8.5kW system (at ~$3.05/watt), a net savings of $5.9k over 20 years seems possible. (61,62)

However, this neglects typically non-ideal rooftop orientations. I.e., the above link also projects for Bellingham, at an annual average ~3.5 hours/day of full sunshine equivalent, and an 80 percent roof-top collection efficiency (due to typically non-due south-facing orientation and sub-optimal roof pitch), ~23.8 kWh/day x 365, or an annual ~8.7 mWh of generated electricity. (63,64)

Some of the solar electricity would be deployed immediately. However, peak usage hours are mornings and evenings, while peak sunlight is midday. So, the fraction immediately consumed will be fairly small. Thus, most of any savings will come from whatever the utility pays its rooftop solar customers for energy returned to the grid.

Overall, U.S. electricity rates are expected to remain fairly stable. (65) However, in the Pacific Northwest, funding the transition from mainly fairly cheap hydropower to more expensive renewables, plus at least doubling current transmission capacity, suggests that residential retail electricity rates may increase by ~25 percent or more over the next 10 years. (67)

Meanwhile, solar panel collection efficiency tends to degrade, on average, at ~0.5 percent per year, so down to ~88 percent over an expected 25-year life cycle. (67) Our state legislators also figure that net metering will cease before 2026, replaced by something between the $133/mWh retail and $48/mWh wholesale rates. So, if we assume an initial midway rate of $90/mWh, with that rate rising gradually by ~25 percent over the next 10 years, and stabilizing thereafter, this would accrue a savings of ~$22k over the system’s life span, i.e., (8.7mWh x 94 percent efficiency) x $101.25/mWh x 10 years + $112.5/mWh x 15 years), for a yearly average of $883.

Tax Credits

The IRA provides a 30 percent tax credit for residential solar, plus an additional 10 percent credit for being, as Whatcom and Skagit counties are, within an “energy community.” And, local manufacturer, Silfab Solar, may start making solar cells, not just build panels, in South Carolina by the end of 2024. This would qualify their panels for an additional 10 percent IRA tax credit. Moreover, there is currently no sales tax on residential solar systems in Washington state. (68)

Combining all of the above leaves the upfront, personal cost of an average 8.5kW residential solar system at ~$13k. Meanwhile, we assume an annual maintenance cost for an 8.5kW system at $263. (69) However, as solar panels are a very long-term investment that is in addition to, rather than a replacement for, a worn-out, existing device, one should also factor the lost opportunity cost of that initial $13k investment, at perhaps ~5 percent or $650 per year, were those funds invested long term in, say, stock market index funds. (70) 

So, for at least the first few years, the average annual tax subsidized personal cost per avoided ton of CO2e may be ~($13k/25 – $883 + $263 + $650)/(0.454 tons/mWh x 8.7mWh) = ~$140/ton.

As for social benefit, the 2024 estimate would be ~8.7mWh x 0.454 tons/mWh = ~3.95 tons, which at $180/ton would be ~$711, and expected to decrease gradually by ~80 percent, as PSE marches toward net zero, presumably by 2050, with the remaining 20 percent covered mainly via reforestation. So, we estimate the average in constant dollars as ~$427 per year for residential solar panels.

2e) 4-Wheeled EVs

As best-selling compact SUVs, the Tesla Model Y, long range (LR), and Toyota’s RAV4 ICEV are comparably sized and midway between sedans and light trucks. The RAV4 also averages 27.2 mpg, quite close to the Washington state average. Thus, they make a good pair for comparison. (71,72) So, let’s initially assume an 8-year-old Toyota RAV4 is driven ~11k miles/year and now worth ~$16.5K. (73) 

Per the above, a Toyota RAV4 ICEV releases ~4 tons/year of CO2e. Switching to a Tesla Model Y LR with federal plus state tax subsidies would cost ~$39.6k, thus an added upfront cost of ~$23k. The Model Y LR gets ~3.6 miles per kWh. So, 11k miles would use 3.06 mWh, while releasing ~1.39 tons of CO2. However, one must also include emissions from production and scrapping. Because lithium battery production is energy intensive, Argonne Labs concludes that EVs release CO2e at ~42 percent that of ICEV cars over their life cycles. Then again, based on Tesla and Ford’s inclusive CO2e emissions inventory reports, adjusted for vehicle weights, we estimate closer to 32 percent. However, we defer here to the Argonne report. (74) This suggests 4 tons x (1 – 0.42) = ~2.3 tons/yr of avoided CO2e, and $414/yr in social benefit, both rising with cleaner grids and improved battery production methods.

Insurance, registration, and maintenance for a 2016 Toyota may average ~$1,800. (75,76) On the other hand, a new Tesla Model Y LR is estimated to also cost ~$15,512 or $3,100 per year in fees, fuel, repairs, insurance, and maintenance over the five or more years of life expected of the used Toyota RAV4. (77,78) So, the total added, personal cost may be ($23k/5 + $3,100 – $1,800)/2.3 tons = a whopping $2,565 per avoided ton of CO2e per year. Yet, we’ve still neglected that a used RAV4’s new owner(s) will drive it until scrapped, perhaps 100k miles later, perhaps netting a social value of zero!

Then again, a brand-new Toyota RAV4 with an MSRP + sales tax of $32,487 + $23,623 in fees, fuel, repairs, insurance, and maintenance over that same 5-year period suggests a total outlay of $56,110, while the total 5-year outlay for a new 2024 Tesla Model Y LR may only be ~$55,099. So, as perhaps a more proper comparison, a new, tax-subsidized model Y LR may cost ~$200 per year less than a new RAV4. Thus, due mainly to the newly added $5k Washington state tax credit, we now estimate an annual -$87 per avoided ton of CO2e, along with $414 in social benefits. (79-84)

In general, the above suggests that replacing devices with more sustainable ones when they’re nearly worn out minimizes personal financial outlay, also that the IRA and other tax breaks and rebates allow for quite modest personal outlays over a wide range of major residential renewable energy devices.

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Ray Kamada, former director of the Environmental Physics Group at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif., is also a member of the Whatcom County Climate Impact Advisory Committee. He has authored about 50 articles on energy conservation, climate change, and renewable energy.

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